Experts Forecast Up To 10% Drop In Wheat And Rice Yields Due To Climate Change

Senior officials have warned that climate change could cause India's rice and wheat production to decline by 6-10%, threatening affordable food access for millions. In addition to this, rising sea temperatures are pushing fish to migrate to cooler, deeper waters, affecting the fishing community. In the 2023-24 crop year, India's wheat production reached 113.29 million tonnes, representing 14% of the global supply, while rice production exceeded 137 million tonnes. Rice and wheat are staple foods for the country's 1.4 billion people, with 80% depending on subsidized grains provided by government schemes.
"Climate change will reduce the yields of both wheat and rice by 6 to 10 per cent, significantly impacting farmers and food security of the country," Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, the Director General of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), told PTI. He said global warming was also reducing the frequency and strength of Western Disturbances, which are weather systems emerging from the Mediterranean region that bring winter rain and snow to northwest India.
This could lead to severe water shortages for billions of people living in the Himalayas and the plains below in the near future, M Ravichandran, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences, said during an interaction with PTI along with Mohapatra. According to the National Innovations in Climate Resilient Agriculture (NICRA), wheat yield in India is projected to decline by 6-25 per cent by 2100. Irrigated rice yields are expected to reduce by 7 per cent by 2050 and 10 per cent by 2080.
Around half of the population in India depends on agriculture. Over 80 per cent of the farmers are small and marginal farmers, having land less than 2 hectares, government data shows. Ravichandran said rising ocean temperatures are also reducing fish catches near the coast. "Like humans, fish prefer cooler waters. As sea temperatures rise, fish are moving to cooler waters away from the coast. This is creating major problems for the fishing community and impacting their livelihoods," he said.
Ravichandran said predicting weather accurately too was becoming difficult with climate change increasing instability in the atmosphere. Several extreme weather events are now occurring simultaneously in smaller areas over shorter periods. "A study shows that climate change could reduce the lead time for predicting heavy rainfall from three days to one and a half days," Mohapatra said.
Ravichandran said the reduction in the number and intensity of Western Disturbances impacting northwest India is leading to decreased ice accumulation in the Himalayas, even as melting of snow is increasing. "The input is less, and the output is more. This means water availability is decreasing. Over two billion people, including those in India and China, depend on this water. It is a very serious issue, and we should be worried about the future," he warned.
The snow-covered Himalayan and Hindukush mountain ranges are known as the Third Pole, containing the largest freshwater reserves outside the polar regions. Approximately one-seventh of the global population relies on the water from rivers that originate in these mountains. IMD data reveals that India's average temperature rose by about 0.7 degrees Celsius between 1901 and 2018. Consistent with global patterns, 2024 was recorded as the warmest year in India since 1901, with the average minimum temperature rising by 0.90 degrees Celsius above the long-term average.

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